The last time the New York Giants tangled with division rivals the Dallas Cowboys, they got blasted 40-0 at home.
By the looks of the Week 10 odds, books don’t expect much improvement from New York on Sunday.
Dallas is laying as many as 17 points at home this Sunday, marking the largest NFL odds spread of the 2023 season so far.
The number is warranted, considering the Giants are playing back-to-back road games, coming off a 30-6 defeat in Las Vegas, and starting third-string quarterback Tommy DeVito against a vaunted Cowboys defense.
That pile of chalk may scare away some bettors, but big favorites have made good of those lofty lines so far this season with double-digit faves going 7-3 against the spread.
I break down that big spread and Over/Under total for this NFC East encounter and give my best free NFL picks and predictions for Giants vs. Cowboys on November 12.
Giants vs Cowboys odds
Giants vs Cowboys predictions
Tight ends have always played a steady role in the Dallas Cowboys offense, but that receiving threat was missing in the early workings of the 2023 season.
Dallas let former TE1 Dalton Schultz walk in free agency this offseason and gave second-year Jake Ferguson the starting role at the position. Ferguson started the season out slow, catching only five balls on 11 targets for a total of 22 yards in the opening two games of the schedule.
However, Ferguson is quickly catching up inside this new Dallas playbook under offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer and developing a growing chemistry with QB Dak Prescott over the past six games, in which he boasts an 84% reception rate.
“I’ve just gotta be there every single time,” Ferguson told the media. “So when Dak says, ‘I’m throwing it to Ferg’, he has ultimate confidence that I’m coming down with it.”
Ferguson is coming off the best outing of his short pro career, grabbing seven of 10 passes for 92 yards and a touchdown in last weekend’s 28-23 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
He has a chance to build on that effort against a blitz-happy Giants defense that will bring a ton of pressure after Prescott, making Ferguson a live option as a quick check-down target. He was targeted seven times in Week 1’s meeting with New York but was able to wrangle just two of those throws.
Ferguson is now much more comfortable as the primary tight end and faces a Giants defense allowing 6.4 yards per pass attempt to TEs along with five TDs given up to the position — tied for most in the NFL.
What’s more, New York is allowing the fifth-most yards after the catch to opponents and sits seventh in missed tackles. Ferguson is averaging 10.3 yards per reception and has a total of 174 yards after the catch — 11th-most among all tight ends in the NFL.
Ferg has topped his receiving yards prop in five of the last six games since that wobbly start to the season, and even with the Week 10 Over/Under of 36.5 yards being a season-high, player projections for the Cowboys TE are positive.
Most models have Ferguson eclipsing the 36.5-yard mark, with my number coming out to 39.5, and the projected ceiling as high as 44 yards.
Given the large spread, the game script is working against the Cowboys’ passing offense, at least in the second half, should they lean into the run.
However, given that Ferguson played a season-high 67 snaps in Week 9, had a season-high 10 targets, and drew a team-high seven targets in the first meeting with New York, the table’s set for another big day from Dallas’ budding TE.
My best bet: Jake Ferguson Over 36.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Giants vs Cowboys same-game parlay
Jake Ferguson Over 36.5 receiving yardsTony Pollard anytime touchdownDallas team total Over 27.5 points50% boost available
+350 +525 at bet365
Ferguson has taken a huge step up in this offense, coming off a season-high in snaps and targets and taking on a Giants defense that plays into his strengths.
Tony Pollard scored two touchdowns against the Giants in Week 1 and can find the end zone on the ground or through the air.
The Cowboys are 21-8 Over/Under versus their team total at home since 2020.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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